Reversing a Decade of Positive Trends

 The Lingering Impact of the Pandemic on Out-of-School, Out-of-Work Young Adults in New York City

NEW YORK, July 26, 2023. In New York City, despite a decade-long trend of increasing gains in the labor market and rising educational attainment, the proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds who are both out of school and out of work (out-of-school, out-of-work) has skyrocketed since the COVID-19 pandemic. Such a trend reversal further pushes this already vulnerable population toward the fringes of our economy and society. This brief, by JobsFirstNYC and Community Service Society of New York, examines the out-of-school, out-of-work population from a variety of socioeconomic and demographic perspectives, identifies programs and policies that seek to address the needs of this population, and includes recommendations to ensure that young adults who are out of school and out of work are put back on track to economic security.

In the years immediately preceding the pandemic, 2018 and 2019, 13.1% of all 16- to 24-year-olds were neither in school nor part of the labor force—the lowest rate since 2010. Post-pandemic, that share has risen to 16%.

There are 138,029 young people who are out of school and out of work in New York City. In absolute terms, an additional 25,500 16- to 24-year-olds have joined the out-of-school, out-of-work category in New York City since the onset of the pandemic. This increase is especially noteworthy since the overall population of 16– to 24-year-olds has decreased over the same period. In 2021, the out-of-school, out-of-work rate for 18- to 24-year-olds was 20%--slightly higher than the rate in 2005, when JobsFirstNYC was founded to address the out-of-school, out-of-work young adult crisis.

According to Amanda Rosenblum, Vice President of  Education, Research, and Impact at JobsFirstNYC, “The once again skyrocketing rates of out-of-school, out-of-work young people, revealed in this data brief, should give us all pause. Every day we are witnessing the profound impact of persistent barriers to educational access and economic mobility for our young people and their communities. JobsFirstNYC was founded to leverage all available resources to address this crisis.  After a decade of positive trends, we are now witnessing an alarming reversal that demands action—where we must decide as a city that we will prioritize our young people for the benefit of all of us.”

 “In 2011, there were more than 181,500 young people, ages 17-24, who were out-of-school and out-of-work.’  Over the last decade, those numbers have trended downward, reflecting gains in the labor market and rising educational attainment for this crucial demographic. But since the pandemic, the ranks of OSOW young adults in our city – mostly Black and Latino men – are on the rise. Reconnecting these New Yorkers to meaningful educational opportunities and workforce programs should be one the city’s highest priorities. Our joint report with JobsFirstNYC examines the factors driving the increase in OSOW young adults and offers several recommendations on how to turn these numbers around,” said David R. Jones, President and CEO of the Community Service Society of New York.

Key Findings

Who are out-of-school, out-of-work young adults now?

Out-of-school, out-of-work young adults are now more likely to be male.  Black and Latino/a/x/Hispanic communities had the largest increases. Out-of-school, out-of-work young adults are more likely to come from low-income households.

Where do out-of-school, out-of-work young adults live?

Manhattan and Queens have experienced the largest increases in out-of-school, out-of-work rates. The following districts with the largest increases since the pandemic are: Queens Community District (CD) 1; Manhattan CDs 4, 5, and 9; and Bronx CDs 4 and 8.  The districts with the overall highest out-of-school, out-of-work young adult population have historically experienced barriers to economic mobility opportunities. These districts are Brooklyn CD 16; Bronx CDs 1, 2, and 5; and Manhattan CDs 10 and 11.

What is the state of educational access and attainment?

Overall, high school enrollment rates are increasing, dropout rates are falling, and graduation rates are improving for NYC young adults. However, most out-of-school, out-of-work young adults lack any college education.

What are the trends in the labor market?

Industrial sectors where young adult employment tends to be highest - retail, restaurants, and hotels - have yet to fully return to their pre-pandemic levels. Among young adults who are employed, wage growth has been slow relative to growth in wages for all workers, and the share of workers in part-time work has increased. The 2021 16- to 24-year-old unemployment rate  of 10.3% exceeds the unemployment rate for the overall population, which is 6%.Median wages for full-time workers are $28,138 for 16- to 24-year-olds and $57,554 for the entire population. The median wages of young adult workers vary less by race and ethnicity relative to the entire population.

JobsFirstNYC recommends the following to meet the economic needs of young people:

1. Address the long-term economic insecurity created by part-time, low-wage work. Ensure more young adults can gain full-time employment.
2. Support neighborhood partnership development in neighborhoods with high and rising out-of-school, out-of-work rates.
3. Prioritize economic mobility and pathways to prosperity for historically marginalized and disproportionately harmed communities.
4. Create a seamless continuum of integrated services across education and youth development institutions.
5. Permanently expand the Earned Income Tax Credit to include earners aged 18–24.
6. Increase the minimum wage and strengthen wage equity policies for young adult workers.
7. Increase investment in initiatives that support young men.

Download the full data brief here

For more information, contact Amanda Rosenblum, Vice President, JobsFirstNYC at arosenblum@jobsfirstnyc.org.

About JobsFirstNYC

JobsFirstNYC creates and advances solutions that break down barriers and transform the systems supporting young adults and their communities in pursuit of economic mobility. We build community-driven partnerships, citywide and industry-led employment networks, and policy-solutions, all of which have improved economic mobility for individuals and the communities they live in. Since 2006, JobsFirstNYC has worked with organizations and institutions across New York and developed models that have been replicated and integrated across the workforce system. For more information, visit www.jobsfirstnyc.org

About Community Service Society of New York

The Community Service Society of New York (CSS) has worked with and for New Yorkers since 1843 to promote economic opportunity and champion an equitable city and state. We power change through a strategic combination of research, services, and advocacy to make New York more livable for people facing economic insecurity. By expanding access to health care, affordable housing, employment opportunities, debt assistance, and more, we make a tangible difference in the lives of millions. Join us at www.cssny.org

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