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CSS Survey Reveals Broad Dissatisfaction Among Low-Income New Yorkers About Where the City is Headed as Election Nears

Reflecting Their Discontent, the Majority of Low-Income Voters Say They May Sit Out the Upcoming Mayoral Election

New York, NY August 31, 2005—A clear majority (62 percent) of low-income New Yorkers say the city is on the wrong track. And when it comes to the four specific issues that are most likely to decide their votes this fall - jobs, crime, affordable health care, and housing – more than 70 percent think things are moving in the wrong direction. These are among the findings of The Unheard Third, 2005, Bringing the Voices of Low-Income New Yorkers to the Policy Debate (PDF), an annual survey conducted for the Community Service Society by Lake Snell Perry Mermin & Associates. The survey defines low-income New Yorkers as city residents living at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty guidelines, less than $32,000 for a family of three. Moderate and higher-income New Yorkers are defined as everyone with incomes above that level.

In contrast to low-income respondents, half of moderate and higher-income New Yorkers say that the city is moving in the right direction. Yet, when it comes to the issues that will most likely influence their votes – local taxes, crime, and the public schools – nearly a two-to-one margin believes that things are on the wrong track. In both income categories, almost no one mentions a candidate’s personality and character (2 percent) or party affiliation (1 percent) as a deciding factor for them.

Reflecting widespread dissatisfaction, likely voter turnout among lower-income New Yorkers shows a steep drop over prior years, with only 31 percent saying that they are almost certain to vote this year. This is a decline of 18 percentage points compared to the 49 percent who said they were certain to vote in a similar survey prior to the gubernatorial elections in 2002, and a 29 percentage point drop from the presidential election last year. Sixty-two percent of moderate-to higher-income New Yorkers said that they are almost certain to vote, only 3 percentage points lower than in 2002.

“These numbers should be a wake-up call to all of the mayoral candidates,” stated David R. Jones, president of CSS. “The candidates are not speaking to this large base of low-wage, working people. Low-income New Yorkers are not sharing in the economic prosperity of some quarters of our city, as clearly evidenced this week by the increase in the New York City poverty rate - the only city with a million or more residents to exhibit an increase. Unfortunately they may express their dissatisfaction by not voting. While the candidates are fighting over middle income voters, they are missing an opportunity to organize and mobilize this critical portion of their base,” said Jones.

Frustration that Mayor Bloomberg is not adequately addressing the issues that matter most to them was reflected in the job rating he received. Only 22 percent of low-income respondents gave the mayor a grade “A” or “B” compared to 43 percent of moderate and higher- income respondents.

Behind these low job ratings are doubts on how much progress has been made in improving the city’s schools, Bloomberg’s signature issue. As education has moved into the public spotlight, more New Yorkers across incomes have stronger opinions about the job the schools are doing in educating our children; twice as many New Yorkers gave the public schools a grade “D” this year as last, with the majority of New Yorkers giving the schools a “C” or lower (71 percent). Fewer than one out of five respondents gives the public schools an “A” or “B” regardless of income.

When it comes to using public money for large scale development projects like sports stadiums and convention centers, over half (51 percent) of New Yorkers across income levels were opposed unless the they knew that the jobs created by these projects would be targeted to city residents who need work. Then 57 percent were in favor.

“The level of New Yorkers’ discontent with the direction the city is headed may seem surprising in light of recent indicators showing some progress on student test scores, a booming real estate market, and a decrease in the city’s unemployment rate,” said Nancy Rankin, CSS Policy Director and lead researcher. “But these indicators are not the ones that count for low-income residents. Soaring real estate values don’t help if it means staggering rent burdens, rising test scores offer little comfort when your kids are dropping out, and a dip in the official unemployment rate doesn’t measure the high numbers of jobless New Yorkers who have given up looking for work or who are working fewer hours than they need to support their families.”

This is the fourth annual survey of low-income New Yorkers undertaken by CSS to better gauge the concerns and hardships of the one-third of the electorate living below twice the federal poverty level. The complete survey results, including hardship trends over the past four years and views on education, training, and other policies, will be available in mid-October and will be posted on the CSS website.

• View the initial data (PDF)
• View final data (PDF)
• View past survey results

Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,500 New York City residents, including 1,000 low-income and 500 moderate and higher-income New Yorkers between July 20th and August 14th, 2005. The margin of error for the low-income sample is +/-3.1 percentage points; for the moderate and higher-income sample +/- 4.4 percentage points; and for the total (representing all incomes weighted to reflect their actual proportions of the city’s population) +/- 3.2 percentage points.

CSS is an independent, nonprofit organization that for more than 160 years has provided innovative solutions to help New Yorkers in need defeat the problems of poverty and strengthen community life for all. Through a combination of service initiatives, policy analysis, and advocacy we bring about systemic change that empowers those in need to advocate for themselves.

Fact Sheet

The Unheard Third, 2005, Bringing the Voices of Low-Income New Yorkers to the Policy Debate

*No other issue was mentioned by more than 20 percent of either lower or moderate-higher income residents surveyed.

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